BANGKOK (AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump’s sudden shift in American policy toward Ukraine over the past three years has sparked worries that China may feel encouraged to assert its claim over Taiwan. Nevertheless, analysts believe Beijing is likely adopting a wait-and-see approach to observe how the European situation develops.
In the last fortnight, Trump has inaccurately stated that Ukraine “should never have initiated the war,” suggested that Ukraine “might one day be Russian,” and questioned the validity of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s administration, while overturning the long-established American strategy of isolating Russia in response to its aggressive moves by initiating direct dialogue with Moscow and making statements that echo the Kremlin’s perspective.
Prior to his meeting with Trump in Washington on Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron indicated that he would stress, “you cannot show weakness in front of President Putin.”
“It’s not you, it’s not your trademark, it’s not in your interest,” Macron stated he would express to Trump. “How can you gain credibility with China if you appear weak against Putin?”
What is the connection between Ukraine and Taiwan?
Similar to Moscow’s assertion that Ukraine is legitimately Russian territory, China claims the autonomous island of Taiwan as its own. Chinese President Xi Jinping has not dismissed the possibility of using force to take it.
On Friday, Trump seemed to retract his earlier claims that wrongly blamed Ukraine for initiating the conflict. However, his administration’s sudden change in policy regarding the situation could lead some in Taiwan to wonder if “the United States might also withdraw its support from them,” according to Russell Hsiao, executive director of the Global Taiwan Institute in Washington.
While it’s clear that Beijing is paying close attention to Trump’s statements, Hsiao asserts that it is unlikely to act impulsively.
“I don’t think Xi Jinping will be so reckless as to assume that just because Trump has acted in a certain manner regarding Ukraine, he would respond the same way about Taiwan,” Hsiao remarked. “Trump’s unpredictability is a factor.”
Shifting U.S. positions on Taiwan under Trump
During his presidency, Trump was notably favored in Taiwan, where he was credited with strengthening ties between the U.S. and the self-governing island.
Under American law, the U.S. is required to provide Taiwan with adequate military resources to defend itself against an invasion from the mainland, while upholding a policy of “strategic ambiguity” regarding its defense obligations.
Recently, Trump has expressed more skepticism towards Taiwan, suggesting that it should compensate the U.S. for its defense services. He has also accused Taiwan of diverting semiconductor manufacturing from the U.S., hinting earlier this month at potential tariffs on chips.
Additionally, Trump has filled his administration with numerous China hawks, including high-profile appointments like Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
After discussions with NATO allies earlier this month, Hegseth emphasized that if the U.S. were to reduce its support for Ukraine, it would shift its focus to the Asia-Pacific region and delegate European defense primarily to European nations.
“The deterrent effect in the Pacific is one that really can only be led by the United States,” Hegseth noted.
A few days later, Rubio issued a joint statement with his counterparts from Japan and South Korea after their meeting on the sidelines of a security conference in Munich, highlighting the “critical need to maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait as an essential element of security and prosperity for the international community.”
In a move that displeased Beijing, the State Department also omitted a statement regarding American opposition to Taiwan’s independence in a revised government fact sheet about the island.
Beijing may reconsider its approach
“If I were in Beijing, I would pay close attention to Hegseth’s comments about why the U.S. is altering its support for Ukraine,” said Meia Nouwens, a senior fellow focusing on Chinese security and defense policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
“Hegseth indicated that this shift relates to the Indo-Pacific and that U.S. priorities are changing, which, from Beijing’s viewpoint, may be unsettling,” Nouwens added.
The alteration in stance on Ukraine could provide China with a narrative that the U.S. is an unreliable ally, she remarked. However, it is unlikely that Beijing would interpret Washington’s apparent readiness to concede Ukrainian territory as an indication that it would similarly tolerate Taiwan falling into Chinese hands.
“The broader trajectories of both the U.S. and China remain relatively unchanged,” Nouwens pointed out. “Neither side aims to concede any influence; both seek to strengthen their national power.”
It’s noteworthy that during the initial months of Trump’s first term, there were concerns about his administration’s potential closeness to China. Still, he ultimately adopted a tougher stance than many predecessors, said Euan Graham, a senior defense analyst with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
Graham asserted that while all American allies “should be alarmed by the Trump administration’s withdrawal of support for Ukraine and the readiness to engage with Putin,” it would be “oversimplistic” to think a similar strategy would apply to the China-Taiwan issue.
“It’s more plausible that the U.S. administration is attempting, albeit misguidedly, to sideline Ukraine by framing it as a European concern to engage China from a position of relative strength,” Graham said. “This approach is dangerous due to the ill precedent it sets but is unlikely to be mirrored in the context of China.”
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Didi Tang in Washington, D.C., along with Sylvie Corbet and John Leicester in Paris contributed to this report.
