While Democrats might rejoice over a victory in a battleground state during the most costly judicial campaign in U.S. history, President Donald Trump and the GOP are facing an unsettling early indication of how Elon Musk’s substantial influence could impact the party.
Musk, the billionaire adviser to the White House, significantly contributed to the campaign, funneling over $15 million through personal funds and associated groups to support former Wisconsin Attorney General Brad Schimel, the Trump-endorsed candidate challenging Madison County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford. Crawford and her team retaliated effectively, using Musk’s involvement as a counterpoint and achieving a decisive victory.
Although the race was officially nonpartisan, it was heavily laden with partisanship, effectively acting as a proxy referendum on the early months of Trump’s presidency, particularly regarding Musk, who has emerged as a major figure in Republican politics since Trump’s victory last year.
Despite the unfavorable outcome for Republicans in this initial statewide test of the second Trump administration, Trump’s advisors are currently downplaying the defeat, citing it was an off-year election with turnout lower than in the recent presidential election.
“The results are what they are. It’s an off-year race and predictive of nothing,” remarked a Trump adviser. “I don’t believe you can extrapolate too much from it, including Elon’s involvement.”
A source familiar with Musk’s perspective echoed this sentiment, attributing the loss to an “uphill battle.”
“Elon was a proactive participant throughout the race, fully aware it was a challenging endeavor. The only reason Schimel was competitive was due to Elon’s engagement,” the source noted. “He forced the Democrats to defend their position and compelled them to invest in a contest that should not have been close.”
The individual also mentioned that Musk’s commitment to supporting Republican campaigns would persist.
“He intends to remain active and is not conceding any ground to the Democrats,” the individual stated.
Nevertheless, in light of Schimel’s defeat, Republicans are examining how Musk’s prominent influence might mold crucial political contests leading into the 2026 midterms, when Republicans must defend a slender House majority. While participation in Wisconsin did not reach presidential levels, it was close to the turnout seen in the 2022 midterms — indicating a more standard election rather than a significant dip in turnout.
“Elon benefits Trump because he acts as a shield,” remarked a Republican operative who consulted Musk during the Wisconsin race. However, they added, the attention he generates is ultimately “detrimental to elections, as it charges up the Democrats.”
A recent NBC News poll indicated that a majority of voters nationwide (51%) hold unfavorable views of Musk, compared to 39% who perceive him positively. As of 11 p.m. Tuesday, neither Musk nor Trump had publicly commented on the outcome in Wisconsin.
The administration’s political apparatus, including Musk, played an “unprecedented” role in the election, underscoring the race’s significance to Trump, as well as the sting of the defeat. Trump had endorsed Schimel and promoted the race’s importance; however, much of the attention in the weeks leading up to Election Day was directed at Musk, who was Trump’s largest donor last year and has shown intentions to leverage his considerable wealth in future contests.
In addition to contributing substantial political donations to Schimel, Musk initiated a petition challenge that offered a $1 million prize to those who signed up to combat “activist” judges, along with hosting a rally for Schimel on Sunday, where Musk proclaimed the race could “determine the entire course of humanity.”
“I would consider it unprecedented,” remarked former Wisconsin GOP chair Andrew Hitt regarding the White House’s involvement in the state race. “This level of engagement has never occurred before.”
He acknowledged that the race absolutely unfolded under the combined Trump-Musk narrative as it drew more national attention, though it was not exclusively Democrats trying to cement that branding.
“I believe that as the race nationalized, the right established itself as the proponents of the Trump-Musk candidate,” Hitt elaborated. “The left didn’t have to do that; it was the conservatives who did.”
Hitt expressed surprise at the robustness of Crawford’s lead late Tuesday, but he also felt Musk’s involvement had helped energize grassroots Republicans in the state.
“I believe he helped narrow the gap,” he stated. “We’ll see where the final margin settles, but it felt like Elon was giving people a boost. Perhaps not? Time will tell with the final numbers.”
Trump narrowly triumphed over Vice President Kamala Harris in the state by less than 1 percentage point last year — marking the third consecutive presidential election in Wisconsin determined by fractions of a percentage.
“Wisconsin holds significant political weight, and the Supreme Court plays a major role in elections there,” Trump remarked last week. “Winning Wisconsin carries great importance, which is why the Supreme Court selection … is a crucial race.”
Nonetheless, Trump supporters were focused Tuesday on victories they secured in two congressional seats in Florida, which would aid in preserving the GOP’s slender House majority. Though Democrats made slight inroads during low turnout in these traditionally Republican districts, both GOP candidates secured substantial wins.
“The Democrats maintained Wisconsin’s Supreme Court seat while Republicans clinched both congressional races in Florida,” noted a former Trump advisor. “Republicans continue to sustain our House majority, and most importantly, the Democrats will not be able to obstruct President Donald J. Trump’s America First agenda.”
