The Democratic Divide: Would a Shutdown Benefit or Harm Trump?

When Senator Chuck Schumer, the Democrat minority leader from New York, revealed his intention to align with Republicans in order to facilitate the passage of a stopgap spending bill, he contended that a government shutdown would effectively empower President Trump and Elon Musk to undermine government programs and reduce the size of federal agencies.

“In the event of a shutdown, the Trump administration would be granted full authority to classify entire agencies, programs, and personnel as nonessential, leading to staff furloughs with no guarantee of recall,” Mr. Schumer stated on Thursday.

Many Democrats, shocked and furious at Mr. Schumer’s position, believed that the spending extension itself would pave the way for Mr. Trump’s executive actions and Mr. Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency to continue their transformation of government, overpowering Congress in the process.

Amid the political discord over the right approach to counteracting Mr. Trump, a practical question arises: Does the White House gain or lose power during a government shutdown?

It’s a nuanced issue. Here’s what you need to understand:

During a government shutdown, agencies may continue necessary functions, but federal employees and contractors will not receive pay. A number of employees are put on furlough until Congress takes action to pass new funding.

Federal agencies generally prepare contingency plans detailing which employees remain active and which programs must continue during a shutdown. However, spending experts indicate that the final calls regarding what is classified as “necessary” or “essential” ultimately lie with the White House Office of Management and Budget, currently overseen by Russell T. Vought.

During the shutdown in Mr. Trump’s initial term, Mr. Vought worked to increase the number of federal employees deemed necessary to continue working. Yet, he has also expressed a strong desire to significantly reduce the federal government, slashing its workforce and attempting to retract congressionally approved budgets for government agencies.

Laura Blessing, a fellow at Georgetown University’s Government Affairs Institute, commented that given the Trump administration’s approach to governance, the outcomes of a shutdown remain uncertain.

Shutdowns grant the executive branch considerable discretion in determining how government functions in the absence of spending authority.

“In a government shutdown, the president possesses nearly complete flexibility to halt discretionary spending that he deems nonessential,” explained Jessica Riedl, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank.

Mr. Trump and Mr. Musk have taken unilateral actions to eliminate programs and even entire agencies they disapprove of, such as the U.S. Agency for International Development. However, such actions can be complex and time-consuming, as the Trump administration has learned from recent litigation challenges.

In a shutdown scenario, the dynamics would transition towards the shutdown of every federal department, potentially streamlining the decision-making process for the president and his team regarding which programs to fund and which to allow to falter without financial support.

David Super, a professor specializing in administrative law at Georgetown University, noted that Mr. Trump and Mr. Vought might effectively control the timing of government resumption to favor their agendas, leaving federal employees in prolonged furlough from departments they oppose.

Senator Patty Murray from Washington, who advocated for a shorter-term funding extension to allow Congress time to finalize regular spending bills, stated on Friday that the Republicans’ proposal “provides a blank check to Elon Musk and Donald Trump to dictate how taxpayer dollars are allocated — all while reducing funding that working individuals rely on daily.”

In standard spending bills, Congress members provide explicit instructions regarding the allocation of federal funds for the fiscal year. Conversely, temporary extensions like the one passed on Friday merely maintain existing funding levels without imposing cuts, increases, or restrictions on their use.

Numerous Democrats contended that this would grant the Trump administration greater leeway in managing federal funds, despite its efforts to halt expenditures approved by Congress.

However, Ms. Riedl argued that in a temporary extension, presidents are generally expected to adhere to the funding levels set by Congress, barring any explicit alterations.

“The president cannot simply abolish the Department of Education or send home all employees from a specific department,” Ms. Riedl asserted. “He is still obligated to implement the program and maintain spending at mandated levels.”

Nonetheless, the Trump administration has made it clear that it does not view itself as constrained by Congress’s spending directives.

“Trump and Musk will continue to act illegally regardless of what this funding bill specifies,” stated Senator Christopher S. Murphy, a Democrat from Connecticut, in a video outlining his opposition. However, he cautioned that by extending funding, “Democrats risk giving a false sense of bipartisan support to their initiative to hand control of our government to billionaires and undermine the rule of law.”