Republicans are hoping to expand their House majority by two seats following the special elections in Florida next week, offering GOP leaders some additional leeway in a closely contested legislative chamber. However, they may find themselves anxious until the polls close on Tuesday.
Next week, voters in Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional Districts will cast their votes. These are two strongly Republican districts that President Donald Trump won handily in November. While Republicans anticipate victories in both contests, they face increased competition due to a surge of Democratic funding and early voting.
Republicans are concerned that unexpectedly tight races could suggest that voters are reacting negatively to the Trump presidency and indicate that Democrats might hold the advantage as they head into next year’s midterm elections.
Trump has emphasized that the stakes are significant.
“Your vote in this essential election will help decide whether the radical left will bring Congress to a standstill, which is their goal — to halt all progress that we have made, which is historic,” Trump stated during a tele-town hall on Thursday night for Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, who is vying to succeed former GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz in the 1st District located in the Florida panhandle.
Trump also hosted a tele-town hall with State Sen. Randy Fine, who is campaigning in the 6th District on Florida’s eastern coast to fill the vacancy left by former GOP Rep. Mike Waltz, who is now Trump’s national security adviser.
Fine declined to comment about his race, but Patronis mentioned in a Wednesday interview that Trump is “laser-focused” on securing victories in these special elections, noting that he spoke with Trump on Monday and provided an update on his campaign efforts.
“The man is a winner, and he aims for big victories. He likes to win with confidence,” Patronis remarked, adding, “I will do everything in my power to ensure he is not let down.”
GOP ‘anxiety’
Trump’s tele-rallies occurred amid Republican frustrations about having to divert attention and resources to special elections in reliably Republican areas.
According to election results from the NBC News Decision Desk, Trump secured the 1st District by a margin of 37 points and the 6th District by 30 points in November. Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by a ratio of 2-to-1 in these districts, based on state voter data from last fall.
However, Democratic candidates have raised significant amounts of money and heavily invested in advertising, raising GOP alarms.
“The influx of money from across the country definitely causes a lot of anxiety,” Patronis said. “They are targeting an area of Northwest Florida that has never seen such substantial spending in campaign history.”
Patronis’ Democratic opponent, gun control activist Gay Valimont, gathered $6.4 million from January 9 to March 12, while Patronis raised $1.1 million during the same timeframe, per fundraising reports submitted last week to the Federal Election Commission.
Republican leaders express even greater worries about the race in the 6th District, which has a much wider disparity in fundraising. Fine raised $561,000 in the latest fundraising cycle, whereas his Democratic opponent Josh Weill raised an impressive $9.7 million. Fine has also recently invested $600,000 of his personal funds into his campaign.
Early voting results are adding to GOP concerns in the 6th District race, where Democrats have matched Republicans in early returns despite being at a registration disadvantage. In contrast, Republicans hold a majority in early returns for the 1st District. Democrats have generally shown higher turnout in early voting in recent years, whereas many Republicans tend to vote on Election Day.
Fine addressed the early vote discrepancy during a Wednesday appearance on former Trump adviser Steve Bannon’s “War Room” podcast.
“The Democrats are energized, while the Republicans aren’t. We must make our base mad and aware of what’s at stake,” Fine mentioned, adding, “I believe we have solid Election Day turnout, but we need to elevate our game right now.”
Both Fine and Patronis have received support from Republican external groups that have recently begun advertising. Conservative Fight PAC and Defend American Jobs, affiliated with cryptocurrency executives, have launched ads promoting Trump’s backing of both candidates and targeting their Democratic opponents. A super PAC linked to billionaire Elon Musk has also started spending thousands on “texting services” in both races.
The Democratic candidates have not seen assistance from outside organizations. While the Democratic National Committee provided funds to the Florida Democratic Party for poll watchers and field organizers, DNC vice chairs David Hogg and Malcolm Kenyatta visited the 6th District, and DNC Chairman Ken Martin is scheduled to campaign there this weekend.
Valimont expressed disappointment that the national party overlooked her race.
“People are observing the percentage of registered Republicans in this area and concluding, ‘There’s no chance,’” Valimont commented. “I believe there is a chance.”
Democratic longshots
Despite the challenges, Republicans remain optimistic about winning both elections.
“We’re confident in our ability to win the seat,” National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Richard Hudson, R-N.C., stated this week regarding the 6th District race. He subsequently noted that Republicans feel “comfortable” about the 1st District.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., also recognized that those races may prove tough for Democrats.
“These districts are predominately Republican, which would typically suggest no reason to expect close races,” Jeffries mentioned this week. “However, I can guarantee that the Democratic candidate in both Florida special elections is likely to significantly outperform expectations.”
Valimont and Weil believe they can carve out paths to victory by capitalizing on lower turnout, energizing Democrats, and winning over independent voters and even some Republicans. They both indicated that Trump and the Republican Congress’s early actions could sway some GOP voters away.
Valimont, who lost to Gaetz in November, stated that the discussion in the district has shifted since then, particularly after cuts to the Department of Veterans Affairs due to the Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency’s attempts to reduce federal expenditure.
The 1st District houses the highest number of veterans in any House district in Florida and the second-highest in the nation, according to the VA, and Valimont has vowed to advocate for establishing a VA hospital in the district.
“We’re seeing increased support from individuals we didn’t expect.. including Trump loyalists who have lost their jobs and realize he doesn’t care about them,” Valimont said.
Patronis, who supported DOGE and the federal cuts, stated that veteran support would be a top priority if elected.
“Elon has done nothing but bring transparency to the absurd spending in the federal government,” he commented.
Weil explained that he decided to run due to concerns over threats to the Education Department, which Trump seeks to dismantle. He also highlighted the substantial senior population in the 6th District, which could be impacted by cuts to Social Security and Medicare, as around 30% of the district’s residents are over 65, according to census data.
“They voted last election for economic relief, and now they’re facing threats to their fixed incomes, with potential cuts to Medicaid and Medicare,” Weil asserted.
Weil has also released an attack ad against Fine, accusing him of supporting Medicaid cuts and linking him to Musk’s comments labeling Social Security as a “Ponzi scheme,” although the ad refrains from naming Musk directly.
Competing in districts that Trump won decisively, neither Valimont nor Weil is directly targeting Trump or Musk in their campaigns, even while Democrats competing in the upcoming state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin are effectively using Musk as a counterpoint.
“I am not running against them; I am running against Randy Fine,” Weil stated, indicating that Fine’s campaign centers around loyalty to Trump.
The polls will close in the 1st District, which is in the central time zone, at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, while the 6th District polls will close at 7 p.m. ET.
