Republicans aim to keep majority in Congress
After Congresswoman Elise Stefanik withdrew her nomination as U.S. Ambassador, Congressional Republicans are now focused on upcoming special elections in Florida in order to preserve their majority.
Fox – 35 Orlando
Is that a hint of blue sky?
Democrats, facing a string of unfavorable news, succeeded in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election on Tuesday − significant as it determines the swing vote in a state that frequently plays a critical role in national politics.
While Republicans preserved two congressional seats in Florida during special elections, their advantage in these solidly red areas has notably diminished since five months prior. Donald Trump’s overwhelming 33-point lead in Florida’s 1st district and 30-point lead in the 6th district has been cut to 15 and 14 points, respectively.
Though they secured victories, it comes with caution.
To clarify, winning one state court seat and two congressional races that were more competitive than before does not indicate a landslide. The continuous flow of news, such as Trump’s announcement regarding global tariffs on Wednesday, will quickly dominate public attention. By next year’s midterm elections, the political landscape could shift dramatically.
Yet, here we are.
Following 72 tumultuous days of the Trump 2.0 administration, these three contests represented the first substantial electoral indication of his standing. Not as interpreted by polls, political figures, or analysts, but through the votes of average citizens.
The implication is clear: The GOP maintains a slim grip on the House, but the Democrats are still alive and kicking.
Cory Booker’s speech earns applause, but falls short of results
As the Florida polls closed, Democratic Sen. Cory Booker from New Jersey sought to emphasize that resistance to Trump remains vibrant and active by delivering the longest Senate speech in history, lasting just over 25 hours. He used this time to criticize Trump’s policies on immigration, economy, and national security.
“This is a moral moment,” he asserted in his heartfelt finale.
However, Booker’s lengthy address ended with applause but no tangible action, reflecting the Democrats’ inability to exert influence in a landscape dominated by Republican control over the White House, Senate, and House.
That reality remained unchanged Tuesday.
In the Florida elections, Republican Jimmy Patronis claimed the seat left vacant by the embattled Rep. Matt Gaetz, who resigned following his brief nomination by Trump as attorney general. Republican Randy Fine took over Rep. Mike Waltz’s position, now serving as the White House national security adviser.
Surprisingly, Republican strategists viewed Patronis as a strong candidate and Fine as weaker, with national Republicans heavily investing in Fine’s campaign. Yet both candidates’ performances were nearly identical − 56.7% for Fine and 57% for Patronis.
This suggests voters were focusing more on national issues rather than their local representatives, paying more attention to the man in the White House.
Trump’s history with special elections as indicators
Currently, Republicans hold 220 House seats compared to the Democrats’ 213. The two remaining vacancies in Arizona and Texas are in heavily Democratic areas and are likely to boost Democratic representation to 215 when those special elections occur.
If that materializes, the GOP will have a slender five-seat majority in the House, meaning Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., can only afford to lose two votes for a majority.
This precarious position has prompted Trump to withdraw his nomination of New York Rep. Elise Stefanik as the United Nations ambassador due to concerns about her seat’s viability — a district Trump had previously won by 20 points.
Trump has had his share of experiences with the omens special elections can signal. During his first year in office, there were six special House elections, with no change in control among them. However, Republican candidates lost ground compared to 2016, while Democrats made gains.
The following year, Democrats gained an impressive 41 House seats, taking back control and paving the way for a more prominent opposition, leading to two impeachment votes.
GOP’s dilemma: Is Elon Musk beneficial or detrimental?
One might assume that spending approximately $20 million in support of the conservative Supreme Court nominee would foster relationships.
However, Elon Musk’s unprecedented expenditures appeared insufficient or even counterproductive. Liberal circuit court judge Susan Crawford consistently linked her conservative opponent, county judge Brad Schimel, to Musk, while Schimel attempted to distance himself.
“Wisconsin defeated the billionaire,” boasted Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who was the Democratic vice-presidential nominee in their lost campaign last year, in a post on X.
Wisconsin is no stranger to close contests. In 2020, Trump lost by less than a point; in 2024, he won by a marginal margin.
However, the outcome on Tuesday was far from narrow, with the race being called just an hour after polls closed. Crawford, supported by Democrats in what was claimed to be a nonpartisan race, was ahead by about 10 points.
Next on the horizon: the off-year gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia.
